In this article we’re discussing the impact of seasonality
in your online marketing strategy. Not all industries enjoy an endless stream
of online traffic, so making provision for the spikes and troughs lows applies
to online traffic, as well as offline sales.
Whilst an organisation is hard pressed to forecast them
absolutely, predicting seasonal variations as distinct from a normal trend is
part of strategic planning. A seasonal variation may be anticipated because of
social custom (e.g. Christmas) but closing the accuracy gap between the
expected variation and actual becomes the challenge.
How can we leverage the positive and minimise the negative
aspects of online seasonality?
1. Plan
correctly
As always, planning is paramount. Some questions which might
feature in your plan include;
• What is
the incubation period for a sale during the season in question?
• How far
ahead do your clients make their purchase?
• How far
in advance of that date are they doing their research to aid the buying
decision?
• Is a
branding campaign – for the particular season - required if people don’t
actively search on keywords?
Marketing creep is the sometimes vexing practice of
advertisers bringing forward sales period of the particular season and examples
might include:
• Christmas
decorations on sale in August
• chocolate
Easter eggs displayed in January
• TV
coverage in mid-summer of the start of Winter football training
The challenge is how far can this be advanced without
irritating/ offending your prospects?
Has your creative been varied to reflect the season? Does it need a new call-to-action for the season? (Remember it will need changing again immediately after the season!)
Does a competitor’s offer need to be matched or bettered to
keep you in the race?
Which serves your needs better? Higher - or steady -
spending if the season brings with it more sales
What seasonal sales spikes which occur regardless? There are examples of predictable highs
• Activity
for tax agents at EOFY
• Back-to-school
supplies & shoes in January
• Fitness
clubs & tanning salons at end-Winter
• Auto
service centres, at start of school holidays
And predictable lows
• Chocolate
sales immediately after Easter
• Slower
retail sales prior to EOFY (stock taking)
• Family
holiday locations at the start of the new school year
• Party
hire suppliers immediately after Christmas/ New Year
Just like the winter ski resort marketing their ‘off’ season
as a cooling Summer escape, could marketing spend be channelled to
What is the year-round average sale value? (How much is the
average sale off-season?)
How does it compare to the seasonal average sales value?
(Does the average customer buy more in season?)
Can the target CPA be increased? (If yes, could provision be
made for a higher CPA inside the season)
Which categories yield best returns? Apportion more budget
to higher yielding products/ categories
3. Track,
Test & Compare
Comparing the outcome of this year’s seasonal sales (versus forecasts) is the foundation of future forecasting accuracy. It is through the comparison of actual with predicted that insights to future seasonal marketing are offered. This is where well configured web analytics is invaluable.
And a final word: don’t forget to factor your site’s mobile
device compatibility into your marketing plans. There’s no escaping the rapid
rise of mobile!
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